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Hindsight buas series#

“I can’t understand why the managers didn’t try to get more information or use the information they had available.He should have known guns invited violence.” “Even though he was a kid, he should have known that once he showed the others who had been drinking that he had a gun, things would get out of hand.Take these examples from the handbook, Jury Selection: What can look obvious in hindsight- it’s obvious the defendant knew what he was doing-might not have been so clear-cut in the moment. The reason they’re there is because a crime has been committed now they need to review the evidence for who may have done it. Hindsight bias is especially dangerous in the courtroom because jurors and judges know the outcome before they hear a word of testimony. But at the time, it was a reasonable prediction. In 2007, Victor Keegan wrote an article in The Guardian titled, “Will Myspace ever lose its monopoly?” In hindsight, that question-and the fact that the article doesn’t mention Facebook-sounds absurd.

Hindsight buas series#

If you’re a Cubs fan, you probably can’t conceive of a reality that didn’t involve them winning the World Series in 2016. Your view of Trump’s election to the presidency affects how you interpret the events of the election. Your decision not to buy Microsoft, Google, or Apple stock years ago, or Bitcoin months ago, might seem irrational in hindsight, even though it was probably entirely rational at the time. You’ve probably experienced hindsight bias, too. The outcome of that decision clouds my judgment of the decision-making process. Now that I know the outcome, it’s difficult for me to understand my decision in an objective way. The night I chose the campsite happened to be the night we had a storm. People may have chosen that campsite for the previous thirty days without a problem. With the benefit of hindsight, we obviously made a bad decision.īut in the moment, we probably made a good decision. It was the farthest from the dock most people don’t want to haul their gear to the farthest site and bypass several acceptable sites along the way.

There could have been other factors why our campsite was unoccupied when we arrived.

Camping in the rain is pretty normal in the northwest.

Most tents are designed to keep the rain out.

It wasn’t the first time I’d camped in the wind.

Most tents are designed to withstand the wind fairly well.

There are almost never windstorms in Washington in the summer.

Sleeping out in the open means less protection from the rain.

Nobody else had selected the campsite.

What looked like the perfect location with a great view turned out to be a terrible location during a storm, unprotected from the wind and the rain. When the sun came up, it was obvious why nobody else had selected our site. The wind kept us awake all night and destroyed our tent. We found out why a few hours later when a storm blew through the island.

Why had no one thought to claim the site? We selected a site on a bluff overlooking the Strait of Georgia and the Olympic Mountains-a great view.

We arrived at Lopez Island, off the coast of Washington state, late in the evening, so we had few campsites to choose from.

It’s your belief you could have accurately predicted an outcome after knowing what the outcome is.Ī few years ago I had the worst night of camping of my life. Hindsight bias reflects your tendency to view the outcome of an event as inevitable.